Há pouco tempo atrás coloquei um post neste fórum sobre a séria possibilidade de François Bayrou chegar à segunda volta da eleição presidencial francesa. Após poucas semanas devo chegar à conclusão de que o meu palpite era demasiado optimista, e a França prepara-se ao contrário para eleger Nicolas Sarkozy.

Sarkozy parece ter aparecido e convencido o eleitorado francês. Agora o semanário The Economist manifesta a sua preferência pelo candidato da UMP.

Three elements of Mr Sarkozy's programme, however, are of more liberal inspiration. First, he understands the need to remove obstacles to job creation. He plans to liberalise the 35-hour week by exonerating all overtime from payroll charges and income tax. Second, he believes in minimising taxation. He wants to lower the overall personal tax rate (including taxes on wealth, property and income) from 60% to 50%; he would reduce tax on corporations and on inheritance; and he promises, albeit optimistically, to cut the overall tax burden by four percentage points over ten years, and public debt to 60% of GDP by 2012.

Third, Mr Sarkozy is ready to confront France's bastions of conservatism. He promises to give universities more autonomy, letting them compete to recruit staff and students. He says he would break the big five unions' statutory stranglehold on representation in companies. He intends to introduce a law that will guarantee “minimum service” on public transport during strikes. And he wants to reform the special pension regimes for railway drivers and other state employees that enable them to retire early on full pension.

Mr Sarkozy is the only candidate who seems both to have understood the urgency of reform and to have the abrasiveness to stand a chance of carrying it out. A political outsider, who fought his way to the top of the Gaullist party through hard work and cunning, he remains fearless in the face of opposition. Anticipating resistance, his advisers are already working on a draft of the law on minimum service, so as to curb the effectiveness of strikes.

• do blogue de Filipe Melo Sousa