Um artigo muito interessante no The Economist mostra o caminho que a Grécia está a trilhar, e que provavelmente é o mesmo que nos espera, mais cedo que tarde (os negritos são meus):

GEORGE PAPACONSTANTINOU, the [...] Greek finance minister, likens the effort to steer Greece away from economic disaster to “changing the course of the Titanic.” Until this week it looked as if the country was headed for an iceberg labelled default. Two austerity packages had failed to convince Greece’s European partners—or the financial markets—that measures to cut the budget deficit this year from 12.7% of GDP to 8.7% would work.

Critics in Brussels said that Greece’s Socialist government was relying too heavily on pledges to cut tax evasion and soak the rich, rather than slash spending, especially on public-sector pay and pensions. The markets pushed spreads on Greek bonds over their German equivalents to record highs. Greece’s ten-year bonds were offering mouth-watering yields of some 6%, twice the German level.

On March 3rd, however, [...] government announced some severe measures: a rise in the top rate of value-added tax, from 19% to 21%, more increases in excise tax on fuel, tobacco and alcohol, a freeze on pensions and an unprecedented 30% cut in civil servants’ Christmas, Easter and summer bonuses. This last is equivalent to a cut of one month’s pay for Greece’s 700,000-strong public-sector workforce.

[...]

One way forward might be to persuade other euro-area countries to buy Greek bonds [...] Greece cannot afford to go on borrowing indefinitely at 350 basis points over Germany. The gains from austerity measures could be swallowed up by such a high debt premium.

[...] German banks are on the hook for so much Greek (and other Mediterranean) debt that some kind of taxpayer support may be unavoidable.

[...] Turkey’s prime minister, has just proposed that the two formerly hostile neighbours should make a joint agreement to cut defence spending.

[...] The IMF would probably tell Greece to sack thousands of public-sector workers and cut pensions sharply.

Greek trade unions are predictably furious over the bonus cuts, which come on top of a 4% pay cut they have already swallowed. [...] Mr Papandreou’s approval ratings have held up, with more than 60% of Greeks accepting that tougher measures are needed.

[...] Greece will shortly complete an overhaul of its tax legislation and come up with proposals to reform state pensions, which now eat up over 11% of GDP. A shortage of competent bureaucrats makes it harder to ensure that any new targets are met. [...]

• do blogue de Luís Lavoura